Short, flat tracks of one-mile or less in length are among the most predictable on the schedule. They require discipline to keep from overdriving into the corners. If a racer eases into the turn, he or she rockets off the apex and carries that speed down the straight. Phoenix, New Hampshire, and Martinsville make driver skill a bigger percentage of the equation and that shows up with some interesting dark horses in the top 20.
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Special to Yahoo Sports
By Dan Beaver
1. Kevin Harvick: With six wins in the last nine Phoenix races, how could Harvick be anything other than this week’s favorite.
2. Joey Logano: If not for a mistake in the pits last spring, Logano would have a seven-race, top-10 streak at Phoenix. His win last fall was one of the few times someone beat Harvick on this course.
3. Chase Elliott: If he keeps running like this, it is only a matter of time before Elliott wins. He’ll be strong at Phoenix and even better next week at Auto Club.
4. Kyle Larson: Beginning with last fall’s Can-Am 500k at Phoenix, Larson has finished second or third in four of five races and he was leading the Daytona 500 with one lap remaining.
5. Kyle Busch: Anger tends to focus drivers. After last week’s altercation with Logano at Vegas, expect both to challenge for top-fives and be part of the storyline again.
6. Kurt Busch: He is not as flashy as his teammate Harvick, but Busch has finished seventh or better in his last five Phoenix races and is a much better value for his salary cap.
7. Brad Keselowski: Two laps from the end, “something major” broke on Keselowski’s car at Vegas and that kept him from winning back-to-back races on similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks.
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8. Ryan Blaney: After failing to make the playoffs last year, Blaney is determined to get off to a great start in 2017. If he can back up last fall’s eighth at Phoenix, he should remain in the top 10 in points.
9. Jamie McMurray: An accident at Daytona keeps McMurray from having a sweep of the top 10 in his first three races of 2017. He flies under the radar with late-race surges.
10. Martin Truex Jr.: Before he crashed last fall at Phoenix, Truex had a four-race, top-15 streak going on the flat one-miler, but he hasn’t had a top-five there since 2009.
11. Kasey Kahne: The shop that prepares the No. 5 and 24 cars is outperforming the No. 48 and 88, so Kahne and Elliott are the Hendrick mates that need to be watched the most closely.
12. Ryan Newman: If one disregards last spring’s accident at Phoenix, Newman has a perfect record of top-12 finishes with Richard Childress Racing on this track.
13. Jimmie Johnson: One would be hard pressed to tell Johnson is the reigning Cup champion. He has only two top-10s in his last eight races, but one of them came at Homestead.
14. Matt Kenseth: His last two races have not been pretty, but Kenseth has earned two top-10s by sheer force of will. Phoenix rewards determination.
15. Denny Hamlin: For the first time this year, all three of the veteran Joe Gibbs Racing drivers were in contention for a top-10 at Vegas. Hamlin is a flat track master, but Phoenix occasionally eludes him.
16. Erik Jones: With back-to-back top-15s in his last two races this season and a 19th in one attempt at Phoenix, it is easy to predict a result in the teens for this rookie racer.
17. Austin Dillon: Segment points will be one way for fantasy owners to evaluate a driver’s strength. In the first three races, Dillon has earned them in only one of six opportunities.
18. Clint Bowyer: It took three races for Bowyer to show what he could do in the No. 14 Stewart-Haas Racing ride. He finished 10th last week at Vegas and more are sure to follow.
19. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: The lingering effects of last year’s concussion might explain why Earnhardt has not yet earned a top-15 in 2017. Phoenix has been kind in the past, and players can better evaluate him after this week.
20. Michael McDowell: Phoenix is McDowell’s home track and that should be good for a position or two. Last week, he was the top performing Group C driver for the first time this year.
21. Daniel Suarez: He is gradually improving and Suarez finally completed all of the laps last week in Vegas. His 20th-place finish was also a career-best.
22. Paul Menard: Before fantasy players get overly excited about last fall’s Phoenix top-10 for Menard, they should note that he has never scored back-to-back top-10s on this track.
23. Aric Almirola: He has only one Phoenix top-10 to his credit, but Almirola has finished outside the top 20 only three times. That makes him a good utility pick if he fits a niche on one’s roster.
24. Ty Dillon: Drivers first have to complete all the laps in order to contend for top-10s. Dillon has done that in his last two efforts of 2017 and also in his only previous Phoenix start.
25. AJ Allmendinger: There is an old adage in NASCAR: “In order to finish first, a driver must first finish.” Allmendinger has been running at the end of all 15 Phoenix races he started.
26. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: It is difficult to know what to expect from Stenhouse this week because he has crashed out of his last two Phoenix races after qualifying in the front half of the field.
27. Trevor Bayne: Roush-Fenway Racing has shown remarkable improvement so far this year, but even when they were a powerhouse, short, flat tracks have not been their strong suit.
28. Matt DiBenedetto: New results come with a new team. DiBenedetto scored a dramatic top-10 at Daytona, but the last two races are more predictive: He was 28th and 26th at Atlanta and Vegas.
29. David Ragan: Phoenix is a driver’s track and that will give several dark horses a chance to make a difference. Ragan has the skill to find the front of the pack, but the competition is going to be stiff.
30. Danica Patrick: She has had a couple of mid-teens finishes at Phoenix in her career, but Patrick has not completed all of the laps there in her last three attempts.
31. Chris Buescher: So far this season, the Yahoo cheat sheets have placed Buescher within three spots of his finishing result on average. As he slowly improves, we expect to keep pace.
32. Landon Cassill: In games that offer place-differential points, Cassill has been a good value in 12 of his last 13 starts. Last week, he finished exactly where he qualified.
33. Reed Sorenson: Consistency is a fantasy player’s best friend. Sorenson has finished 31st or 32nd in his last three Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series starts.
34. Cole Whitt: With top-20s in his first two starts, Whitt was one of the best values in most games. That pace is going to be hard to sustain, however, and players should look for consistent results in the 30s.
35. Timmy Hill: If there is enough attrition during the weekend, Hill could be a pleasant surprise. He has three previous starts at Phoenix with a best result of 29th.
36. Gray Gaulding: He was seven laps off the pace in the Kobalt 400, but Gaulding was finally running at the end of a Cup race for the first time in his career last week.
37. Jeffrey Earnhardt: He is still looking for his first career top-25, but Earnhardt is going to need a lot of attrition to even crack the top 30 at Phoenix.
38. Corey LaJoie: A cut tire last week sent LaJoie home after only 16 laps. That was the first time in a five-race career that he was not running at the end of a race.
39. Derrike Cope: The only way to improve is to finish races and accumulate a notebook. Cope was many laps down at Atlanta and Vegas, but he was running at the end.
For more analysis, go to DanBeaver.com or follow him on Twitter.
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